Australia’s bowlers can win this, but the batting can’t keep hiding
Smith doesn’t need another reminder
Steve Smith is the last bloke South Africa should be giving extra reasons to concentrate. The crowds will get into him, but we don’t think the opposition players will necessarily join in; with Faf du Plessis absent and Aiden Markram a low-key character, we expect something more workmanlike than the advertised confrontation.
We can’t remember this much anticipation since the Ashes, and there has been plenty, we suppose, stirred up by players’ interviews about 2018. Smith has said he has tried to block that year out. We imagine Cape Town, where he lost the captaincy, will make that difficult.
His Ashes return in England remains, to our minds, his best series. When the noise rose, he disappeared into that private batting world, and we reckon he might do it again. Encouraging spectators to remind him of the incident looks a poor tactic.
Smith is certainly chirpier now, even telling Bangladesh’s players to review decisions. He should leave their reviews to them, but we wouldn’t expect silence from him either.
2014 is the standard worth revisiting
The 2014 series deserves more attention than another lap around the scandal, because it showed what this contest can be at its best: hard cricket, shifting fortunes and a result earned late.
Australia dominated the first Test before Dale Steyn and South Africa hit back in Port Elizabeth. By Cape Town, Ryan Harris was bowling virtually on one leg, while Michael Clarke made 140-odd with a broken arm after being struck by Morne Morkel. Australia secured the series 2–1 with about an hour remaining. We would happily have that level of cricket again.
Touring life had its less heroic moments. Shane Warne, there as manager, kept the bus waiting five minutes before arriving with bacon, taking two quick cigarette puffs and boarding. The late fee was $500; the stories were worth having him around.
Meanwhile, James Pattinson and Jackson Bird were charging through 8.30am nets with new balls on damp practice wickets. Selection disappointment can still produce serious practice. Those sessions weren’t a holiday.
South Africa should trust their spin
South Africa should play Harmer alongside Maharaj rather than select an attack on the strength of its old reputation. We rate Harmer among the world’s best off-spinners, in the conversation with Lyon, and reckon Durban’s conditions and their injuries favour two spinners.
Durban normally seams early before flattening out, although its recent history offers ammunition for everyone: Marco Jansen took 11 wickets in a match, while Maharaj and Harmer claimed all ten second-innings wickets in the 2022 game.
We don’t think Rabada will play the opener, and Nortje’s workload worries us. Short-form appearances aren’t preparation for 25 overs an innings; without those fitness questions, his pace would make selection straightforward.
Mulder has to play for balance, but the next-Kallis label is ahead of the evidence. Bedingham’s 1,000 division-two county runs at 75 deserve consideration, while Bavuma remains the anchor. His recent one-day hundred showed added attacking shots; his judgement outside off stump and ability to absorb spells are what make him crucial here.
Maddinson is more than a good story
Nick Maddinson is a good selection, not a sympathy selection, and George Bailey deserves credit for recognising what a confident, positive batter can offer right now.
The objection is legitimate: Maddinson didn’t play Sheffield Shield cricket last season and hasn’t yet produced big red-ball runs on his return. But Australia’s immediate business is winning this series and collecting World Test Championship points, not conducting a two-year development seminar.
After testicular cancer, chemotherapy and 18 months away, simply returning was remarkable. Making a big hundred in his first white-ball game since diagnosis supplied a cricketing reason to look closer. We reckon he now has clarity and perspective, and his attacking game suits the new ball.
That should sharpen Renshaw’s appetite to play despite his wrist problem, with cover already flown in. A broken, immobile wrist is another matter, but we want players doing everything possible to retain their places. If Maddinson gets the opportunity and makes a hundred, Renshaw shouldn’t expect the seat kept warm.
Labuschagne can’t rearrange the furniture
Marnus Labuschagne’s form should not become everyone else’s batting-order problem. Smith at four and Travis Head at five worked well; moving Head upstairs has unsettled that arrangement, and he is still finding his feet, although we think this could be his series to settle.
Labuschagne has averaged 26 over the past three years. We reckon he is a Test-by-Test proposition, and a poor series might leave him outside the side for a while. His credits matter, but the absence of an obvious replacement cannot be an endless exemption.
Moving Head back, opening with Labuschagne or shifting Smith to three would amount to rearranging the furniture around one struggling occupant. Fix the performance, not everyone else’s address.
Connolly is a different question: we think his left-arm bowling would improve the balance, potentially replacing Green if unavailable or Webster. Webster would remain in the picture; Labuschagne’s consequences look considerably greater.
Let the ball move, legally
Australia’s attack is good enough to win the opener, but we expect an ugly, narrow win rather than a procession. South Africa compete too hard to be dismissed, and their World Test Championship victory over Australia ought to have cured that habit.
The toss is awkward. We reckon Cummins will bowl if Durban is green, hoping conditions improve for an exposed batting order, although facing two South African spinners later complicates that calculation. Bowlers also need rest, not another daily rescue assignment.
Reverse swing must remain part of the contest. Shining one side while an abrasive pitch naturally wears the other is not sandpaper, and illegal seam manipulation is a separate matter. Umpires are there to inspect the ball; lawful craft shouldn’t require an apology.
We prefer flatter pitches with spin and reverse swing to automatic outrage at a turner and polite acceptance of a green seamer. Even the unglamorous overs before the second new ball can bring wickets. We reckon Starc will have a standout series, provided the batting gives that attack something to defend.
