Canterbury’s season was a failure
I think most people had them in the top four after last year’s finish, yet a premiership window that appeared to be opening instead slammed shut before anyone had time to climb through it.
Their resources make the collapse less forgivable, not more. Belmore’s existing football centre is hardly state-of-the-art and the gym is small, but it contains everything required, while a new centre of excellence is due to open next year. Manly won premierships after training in dark sheds beneath Bob Fulton’s chemical factory, where the ceiling was too low for overhead presses and spilled chemicals could leave players dizzy. A barbershop has never made a tackle.
Canterbury lost the rushing line speed and dogs-of-war aggression that carried them last year, except for flashes such as the Penrith game. Their irreplaceable edge enforcer drives that identity and, without him, they lack another high-load worker capable of turning defence into confrontation. Jacob Preston is a fine defender, but I want more aggression from him and reckon injuries have held that back.
The spine has been built on wrong calls
Canterbury came undone in the key positions because too many major decisions failed at once. Lachlan Galvin has been among their most consistent players, but committing to him as a halfback has not worked; he is a five-eighth, and repeatedly shifting Matt Burton, Stephen Crichton and other options around him has produced noise rather than combination.
Connor Tracey has endured an inconsistent season and I do not believe Canterbury can win a premiership with him at fullback. Sean O’Sullivan has looked good in his opportunities, but the broader spine remains unsettled.
Releasing Reed Mahoney was also rushed. His demand to remain an 80-minute hooker on a long-term deal at least matching his salary created a genuine cap problem, and retaining him would have cost Canterbury the chance to re-sign Preston. I would still choose Preston every day because of what he contributes on and off the field, but Mahoney embodied their abrasive identity and I reckon they finish in the top four with him. Bailey Hayward produced some strong games, yet Canterbury discarded a proven edge before securing a superior replacement.
Ciraldo must step beyond Gus’s shadow
Cameron Ciraldo should remain Canterbury’s long-term coach, but next season begins with pressure and no room for another sleepy start. I’ve heard he is contracted through 2031, and I have no doubt his intelligence, detail and care for the club can eventually produce a premiership. The culture he has installed is too strong to torch after one failed campaign.
The harder question is whether Ciraldo can properly own the football program while Gus controls the top-30 roster and the pathways beneath it. Gus is a genius at building junior systems and identifying talent; his work helping establish Penrith’s academy and catchment was foundational. He is also an enormous personality whose shadow can cover the furniture.
If forced to choose for Canterbury’s future, I retain Ciraldo. This must become unmistakably his team, because if results are not forthcoming early next year, the drums will start beating regardless of the length of his contract.
Brisbane need Pezet & an honest reckoning
Brisbane must hand Jonah Pezet first opportunity at halfback and allow the next generation to emerge. Ben Hunt remains signed for another season and his versatility makes him valuable across a 30-man roster, particularly after Adam Reynolds’ departure created a leadership void, but extending him surprised me and the No.7 jumper should not be treated as a retirement gift.
Michael Maguire is apparently safe after the review, with Mitch Barnett, Dane Gagai, Pezet and Shawn Blore arriving next year. Barnett may be the most important addition because Brisbane probably lack a hard-nosed worker who ignores the fanfare, trains brutally and maintains standards. I reckon Maguire could even make him captain rather than follow the widespread expectation around Pat Carrigan.
Something is simmering with Carrigan. His body language has looked angry and disengaged, and I suspect he is unhappy with Maguire and decisions made around the club. Brisbane’s clumsy handling of Reynolds’ farewell only deepened the mistrust: the broadcast elements were planned and timed, yet his lap was interrupted while the commercial still ran. He should have been playing and deserved a proper send-off.
PNG must pay market value, tax-free is advantage enough
Peter V’Landys is right to force the Papua New Guinea Chiefs to pay market value. Their tax-free position already tilts the field, so allowing them to discount contracts further would create two competitions operating under one salary cap.
The Chiefs planned to offer Hudson Young $900,000 while Canberra offered $1.1 million, prompting the NRL to insist the PNG figure move closer to $1 million. V’Landys told club chief executives: “We will not register contracts for the Papua New Guinea Chiefs unless they are market value.” That is not persecution. It is overdue governance.
The Chiefs have done a good job building momentum and have not broken rules because they are owned by the NRL, but they must tread carefully around third parties that are allegedly at arm’s length. Their reluctance to host a player unless he is virtually certain to sign also reveals how tightly the sales pitch is being managed.
AJ Brimson remains a pretty good chance of joining them, but I’m no longer confident about Young; this intervention has put that move slightly on ice. Young has made his position clear: Canberra or PNG, nowhere else.
Luai exposed a rulebook written too late
Jarome Luai promoting a future club while still employed by the Tigers is a dreadful look, but the greater failure belongs to the NRL for allowing endorsements connected to PNG to begin before his playing contract does.
Luai will not play for the Chiefs until 2028, yet the arrangement enables him to earn endorsement money now while the Tigers are still paying him hundreds of thousands next year. The endorsements should begin when the PNG contract begins. Anything else invites the obvious question about divided loyalties and leaves the incumbent club wearing the embarrassment like a bad leotard.
The Tigers could have swallowed hard and sent Luai to New South Wales Cup for the remainder of his contract, although I reckon that would merely have reduced the publicity rather than stopped the third-party work. The PNG expansion was rushed, and the loose ends are now tripping everyone.
Wildcard Weekend solves more than it creates
I was initially against Wildcard Weekend because it looked like a reward for mediocrity. I’ve changed my mind: seventh playing 10th and eighth playing ninth would keep the final round alive, discourage mass resting and create two sudden-death matches before the finals begin.
The other teams would receive a week off, reducing the incentive to warehouse stars and helping ensure the best players reach the finals available rather than being ruled out after a last-round concussion.
Those are logistical problems, not reasons to reject the idea. Adding a playoff round preserves the fabric of rugby league far better than tinkering with a kick-off that has existed for generations. Wildcard Weekend creates consequence. The final round desperately needs it.
Penrith remain the standard, but Souths are dangerous
Penrith will win the competition because they remain the most experienced, composed and finals-hardened side in the field. They will not be overawed because they have been there, done it and recently reminded everyone how far ahead they can still be when the season tightens.
The Rabbitohs are the side outside the top four capable of causing genuine damage. David Fifita on one side and Latrell Mitchell on the other gives them rare strike power, their goal-line defence against Canterbury was elite, and Wayne Bennett knows precisely what September demands. I would not be surprised if they wreck a more highly rated club’s season.
Cronulla are one or two links short and have no chance without Braydon Trindall returning. If he comes back and they rediscover their steely edge, they can make a run, but their fullback play remains a weakness on sweeping movements.
Penrith are still the benchmark. Souths are the ambush. Everyone else must prove they can handle either.
