Newcastle’s fairytale is real and wounded Penrith are there to be beaten
The Warriors lost this game before the officials could
The Warriors have every right to be filthy about three brutal second-half calls, but blaming the officials lets their real culprits escape through the side gate: their halves did not aim up.
They had 65 per cent of the territory and enough first-half opportunities to take control, yet Chanel Harris-Tavita and Te Maire Martin could not convert dominance into points. When Mitch Barnett is getting fifth-tackle kicks and taking the ball from Wayde Egan on the last, the attacking shape has broken down completely.
The balance was wrong elsewhere, too. Back-rowers defending at centre were exposed laterally because specialist outside backs will eventually burn makeshift defenders, particularly in a final. Newcastle knew those edges were vulnerable and attacked them rather than attempting to overpower a bigger pack.
Some calls were desperately tight, including the Tyson Frizell incident under the late bomb, but no team owns every decision. The Warriors were good enough to reach Eden Park; they simply weren’t good enough when the season was on the line.
Holbrook has built the team nobody wants to face
I think Justin Holbrook has to be coach of the year, because Newcastle’s victory before 48,000 screaming New Zealand supporters was a triumph of coaching clarity over roster adversity.
The Knights were missing enormous talent, including Dylan Brown, Dylan Lucas and Daniel Saifiti at different stages, yet they played with grit, skill and composure. Holbrook understood that his depleted pack could not fight fire with fire, so he devised the perfect plan: win quick play-the-balls, find the front and attack the Warriors’ vulnerable edges.
Peter O’Sullivan has also done an enormous recruitment job. Fletcher Sharpe and Sandon Smith have class, Dane Gagai keeps improving and Phoenix Crossland remains criminally underrated. Crossland shifted from hooker into the middle, cleaned up high balls and loose possession while the match was balanced, then became a running forward when Harrison Graham entered. He was a machine.
If Newcastle retain this young core and introduce the next wave carefully, they could be set for the next decade. Penrith built an empire that way. Newcastle now have the foundations of their own.
Penrith are champions, not certainties
Newcastle can beat Penrith. The Panthers remain the competition’s proven heavyweight, but reputation does not heal injuries and Nathan Cleary’s kicking foot is nowhere near 100 per cent.
Penrith also have other problems lingering in key positions, while Mitch Kenny has only been back for a few weeks. Newcastle arrive after handling South Sydney comfortably and then surviving a hostile elimination final without looking rattled; that sort of momentum cannot be manufactured during a week off.
Travel and the emotional toll of Eden Park are legitimate concerns, but the Knights travel every second week and will return carrying the belief of an entire region. Their support recalls the groundswell of 1997 and 2001, while Kalyn Ponga’s post-match emotion showed what this run means inside the dressing room.
I’m not pretending Penrith have suddenly become ordinary. I am saying Newcastle have a puncher’s chance, and I expect them to land one more blow.
The HIA loophole is the NRL’s own creation
The NRL has opened Pandora’s box with the HIA rules, and clubs would be negligent not to recognise the interchange advantage created by them.
Let’s be clear: the HIAs at Eden Park were legitimate and above board. The wider problem is structural. When every minor contact with the head can bring a penalty and justify a concussion check, clubs have both a duty of care and a tactical incentive to remove a player at useful moments. I think every club searches for advantages within the rules; singling out the Warriors is convenient nonsense.
The same caution must apply to accelerated injury returns. Dylan Lucas came back from a badly broken ankle but looked stiff, was visibly limping and appeared to remain in pain. If he presents the same way at training, I would not play him against Penrith. Sam Walker returning three-and-a-half weeks after syndesmosis surgery and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak returning four weeks after a collarbone injury underline how dramatically recovery timelines have shifted.
Finals courage is admirable. Sending compromised footballers back into collisions is not.
The Roosters’ 40 points concealed a warning
The Roosters rediscovered some attacking swagger against Cronulla, but 40 points should not disguise how loose they were. The score could have become anything, yet too many passes missed their mark and Newcastle were arguably more clinical in a far tighter contest.
It was still the Roosters’ first win in five weeks, with Lindsay Collins setting the mood immediately and Angus Crichton tightening the middle from the bench, but they remain a front-loading side that tries to hurt opponents with every carry and collision. After 15 or 20 minutes, their fatigue and body language became obvious despite their possession advantage.
That approach is dangerous against the Dolphins, who are fresh, fit and loaded with attacking strike. They can score from anywhere, while their workers will keep turning up after the early fireworks have passed. The Roosters must earn the right to play expansively rather than treating every possession like the final minute of a grand final.
I expect the Dolphins to outlast them. Stay attached for the opening 20 minutes and the opportunities will come.
Cronulla must make the hard call on Hynes
Cronulla cannot keep mistaking September appearances for premiership progress. Five consecutive finals exits demand a hard decision about Nicho Hynes, because loyalty becomes stubbornness when the same ceiling keeps landing on your head.
Hynes reportedly earns more than $1 million, is contracted through 2029 and occupies the salary-cap space of a marquee player. At that price, he must own major finals rather than leaving Braydon Trindall to provide the spark. Trindall played tough while nowhere near fully fit, but Cronulla’s attack again lacked a plan B once its standard structures failed.
The Perth Bears are definitely monitoring the situation. I’ve heard their cap is tight for next year, but the mail is they would be interested if Hynes became available because they are still searching for a marquee signing. Cronulla’s coach should at least entertain the conversation rather than push the same chips into the middle again.
The roster also needs more intimidation. Cameron McInnes is leaving for Super League, while Siosifa Talakai, Katoa and Jesse Ramien are departing; Ramien’s absence already removed one of the few Sharks willing to bully an opponent. Their big pack works, but it does not bash sides into submission. A Ray Stone-type competitor would help, although Stone is retiring to try cage fighting, which is one way of ensuring nobody questions your aggression.
