The Dolphins have been ignored for long enough, now they can win the whole thing
The Dolphins will punish another Roosters fade-out
The Dolphins will beat the Roosters because they have the fresher legs, the tougher middle and, crucially, the discipline to remain switched on when the match turns ugly.
Both teams are fully fit deep into September, which is almost suspiciously luxurious, with Thomas Flegler cleared after his HIA, Felise Kaufusi among the Dolphins’ extended bench and Sam Walker returning for the Roosters. Yet freshness only matters if the concentration survives with it, and the Roosters have repeatedly disappeared for 10 or 15 minutes. The Dolphins scored in clusters when that happened in their recent meeting, leading 26-6 after an hour before winning 26-12 despite two sin-bins.
The centre battles also favour the Dolphins. Herbie Farnworth keeps coming for 80 minutes, while Jack Bostock has produced a phenomenal return from an ACL injury and presents a serious aerial threat. Rob Toia is an outstanding defensive centre with damaging late footwork, but knowing Farnworth’s inward move is coming and stopping it are two very different occupations.
The Dolphins have won eight straight, handled the pressure in Auckland and had around 4,000 people attend training on Monday. They are not gatecrashing the preliminary final. They belong there, and I believe the premiership winner comes from this match.
Robinson’s team sheet looks like September theatre
I’m not buying the Roosters’ named side because Hugo Savala has done too much to be reduced to number 18 without another move coming.
Sam Walker goes directly back into the No.7 jersey, Billy Smith has been named in the centres and Angus Crichton remains on the bench, but I suspect Trent Robinson is playing ducks and drakes. Savala forced his way into the starting 13 through form, has trained at dummy-half and lock, prefers the halves and was manufactured into a centre only after Smith’s injury. That versatility makes him the ideal finals safety net, but it also makes him too valuable to leave parked outside the 17.
Smith has produced 12 tries and averaged 148 metres this season, although he has been in and out of the side and carried osteitis pubis. I reckon there are still defensive errors and misreads in his game, which is why I would rather Savala opposite Bostock.
Walker’s ankle remains the great variable. If his agility is restricted, the Roosters lose the sharpness around the ball that separates their best football from their worst. They are fresh after effectively cruising through the Cronulla game in third gear, but freshness cannot disguise a halfback who cannot move freely.
Cleary will play, but Newcastle can crack wounded Penrith
Nathan Cleary will play on Sunday, but he will play hurt, and that gives Newcastle a genuine path through a Penrith side that is suddenly vulnerable in the one position it can least afford to be.
Cleary has ditched the moon boot for teal Adidas shoes and completed a light run, yet he did not kick at training. I think the injury is a stress fracture rather than a complete break, but acceleration or a sharp step could worsen it, while even kicking is expected to be uncomfortable. The rehabilitation work has been brilliant; the foot still isn’t.
Dylan Edwards will take the goal kicks, while Cleary can probably manage his short attacking kicks. Getting Penrith out of their own end is the harder question, which is why Jack Cogger has to start unless they are completely confident Cleary can handle the long kicking.
Newcastle have endured two brutal finals and must improve after completing at only around 70 per cent by half-time against the Warriors. Still, Justin Holbrook has them playing without fear, Kalyn Ponga was phenomenal in Auckland and Fletcher Sharpe gives them speed around a pack of relentless young forwards.
Penrith remain the six-year benchmark, but both co-captains are carrying injuries. That is enormous in a preliminary final. I think Newcastle can spring the result that blows September apart.
Souths are lowballing Cody, but caution on Latrell is justified
South Sydney are seriously undervaluing Cody Walker at $300,000, but they are right to demand medical certainty before committing another fortune to Latrell Mitchell. Those positions are not contradictory; they are what responsible roster management looks like.
Walker turns 37 in January, yet he played 23 games and had a phenomenal season, with Souths losing their direction after his late calf injury. He was a late bloomer and has less mileage than most players his age, so the offer does seem well below his value.
Latrell is different. He will earn $1.2 million next season, but Souths have major concerns after he played 11 games in 2024, 11 in 2025 and 12 in 2026, with his back and sciatica requiring comprehensive examination. At his best he wins matches almost by himself, which is why an extension probably still needs to be around $1 million rather than an insulting haircut.
Wayne Bennett was right to reject appearance-based clauses as disrespectful, and I believe his declaration that Latrell is going nowhere will prove correct. But Souths also have Tallis Duncan, Brandon Smith, David Fifita, Campbell Graham and Jack Wighton among a looming contract squeeze, while their spine is not presently premiership quality.
Keep Cody. Keep Latrell. Fix the spine. Anything else is salary-cap origami.
Klein’s call mattered, but the Warriors own their exit
Ash Klein’s missed penalty denied the Warriors a fair chance to reach golden point, but it did not steal a victory they had otherwise earned. Newcastle were the superior side across 80 minutes.
The late decision mattered because it prevented the Warriors from potentially levelling at 12-all, and Jack de Belin’s explanation that players train to execute Tyson Frizell’s manoeuvre changed my view of the incident. Klein made a difficult live call in a chaotic match, got plenty of other decisions right and now finds himself reassigned to the bunker for the Dolphins-Roosters preliminary final.
That is a soft landing, although his opportunity to referee the grand final is almost certainly gone, which is the real punishment. Refereeing remains a brutal job, and pretending every marginal decision is evidence of incompetence helps nobody.
The Warriors must own the straight-sets exit. They had already burned their captain’s challenge, failed to execute a field-goal opportunity before half-time and were exposed in the season’s biggest matches. Tanah Boyd’s return should help their halves, but Mitch Barnett and Roger are leaving, while too much was left to Kurt Capewell and 20-year-old Leka Halasima, who played on one hamstring.
The call hurt. Their football hurt more.
