Finals expose the clubs built for pressure and those still bluffing
.jpg)
Cleary will play, but his kicking foot changes everything
Nathan Cleary will play in Penrith’s preliminary final. I cannot see the best player in the competition sitting out at this time of year, although the mystery surrounding a stress-related bone issue in his right foot, his kicking foot, makes this more than the usual September bruise.
Cleary kicked the field goal in considerable discomfort and did not take the final conversion, while his usually meticulous kicking preparation must now be reduced during the 12-day break. He might arrive underdone, but an underdone Cleary remains more valuable than almost any replacement at full fitness.
Penrith know this drill. Dylan Edwards spent most of grand final week in a moon boot before playing the 2021 decider with a broken foot, while Cleary has previously carried serious shoulder and knee problems through finals. The week off is not merely convenient; it is the reason Penrith can manage this.
That resilience explains seven consecutive preliminary finals, an achievement I doubt we will see repeated. The Panthers have shed players and assistant coaches, yet still won the minor premiership and returned to the final four. Ivan Cleary should be Coach of the Year. Justin Holbrook, Andrew Webster and Kristian Woolf have compelling cases, but results are the currency and Ivan keeps minting them.
Holbrook has turned adversity into Newcastle’s weapon
Newcastle can beat the Warriors because Justin Holbrook has coached the team he has, rather than sulking about the team he wanted. Taking a wooden-spoon side into the finals was impressive enough; winning without Dylan Brown, Jacob Saifiti and Trey Mooney made it one of the season’s outstanding coaching performances.
The Knights ambushed South Sydney with line speed, defensive ferocity and an attack willing to use the edges. Dane Gagai was the best player on the field for mine, Kalyn Ponga was barely behind him, and Manu Leiua and Jermaine McEwen supplied size, speed and consistency. Sandon Smith, recruited as a utility before Brown’s injury opened the No.7 jersey, has to be in the buy-of-the-year conversation.
Dylan Lucas will be named in the 22 after roughly eight weeks out with a badly damaged ankle, with Holbrook indicating he would return from the bench. Whether he actually plays remains uncertain, but reaching this point reflects superb work from Lucas and Newcastle’s medical staff.
The pressure belongs to the Warriors. Their halves struggled last weekend, they kicked five penalty goals in a strangely paced match and their edges remain vulnerable. Newcastle will arrive at Eden Park with nothing to protect, while the Warriors have an entire season’s promise sitting on their shoulders. That can become heavy luggage.
The Cowboys did not fall short, they underachieved
North Queensland massively underachieved, and one improved defensive effort against Cronulla cannot disguise a season spent confusing talent with reliability. Their kick-diffusal rate was 42 per cent, the back three endured a dreadful night and Scott Drinkwater produced panic under the high ball before forcing an unnecessary no-look pass when patience was required.
That was the Cowboys in miniature: capable of beating Penrith, then capable of sabotaging themselves. Drinkwater is leaving for St George Illawarra, Jaxon Purdue and Tom Chester are outstanding young players, Tom Dearden is an established playmaker and the pack contains Origin and international experience. This was not an overmatched roster. It was an inconsistent one.
Dearden’s future will remain an off-season watch despite his public insistence that he is committed and staying. There have been rumblings for 12 months, he and his agent met the club earlier in the year, and the reporting around a possible move to Sydney has remained contradictory. That uncertainty must travel with his denial, not replace it.
Todd Payten can coach, but his results have looked similar for too long since the 2022 preliminary final. His extension gives him the opportunity to oversee another roster change; it does not provide immunity. Next season has to deliver something sturdier than another ride on the Cowboys rollercoaster.
Souths must give Cody another year, then fix the spine
South Sydney should re-sign Cody Walker for another season because age has not taken away the rarest part of his game: time. He turns 37 in January, yet few players manipulate a defensive line as cleanly, calculating numbers and identifying weak points while everyone else is still trying to catch up.
The greater problem is the structure around him. Using Jye Gray at dummy half against Newcastle looked disorganised, Jack Wighton still appears better suited to the left side, and Souths have wrestled with their halves and their fitness all year. I would move Cody to the right, play Wighton at five-eighth and find a right centre, with Campbell Graham capable of playing either wing or centre. It is a short-term solution, but Souths are in a short-term window and pretending otherwise wastes another season.
As for the disallowed try, I thought it was a try in real time, although the loose-carry ruling was defensible on replay. My broader verdict has not changed: the bunker must go. When every decisive moment becomes a forensic exercise conducted elsewhere, the referee’s authority is reduced to asking permission. Rugby league has enough grey without installing another office to paint it darker.
Benji needs a challenger, not another human nodding dog
Benji Marshall needs more than a new assistant because the Tigers’ regression was too severe to be explained by one seat in the coaches’ box. They fell from 13th to 15th, won eight games and, I think, managed only about three victories across their final 17 matches. The early-season wave was real; so was the wreckage once it broke.
A senior assistant who challenges Benji is essential. Shane Flanagan is one possibility and fits the brief because he has succeeded as a head coach and worked as an assistant; appointing another mate or compliant voice would merely decorate the same problem. Benji skipped the traditional apprenticeship, so he now has to complete it in reverse under the pressure of running an NRL club. It is a brutal classroom, but sentiment cannot mark the exam.
I also think Shane Richardson’s departure hurt him. Richardson was an experienced sounding board who fronted cameras and absorbed difficult questions, whereas much of that burden later fell on Benji and visibly took a toll.
Still, next year comes down to results. The roster needs major work and an increasingly cutthroat player market will not help, but the Tigers cannot keep circling the same drain. If Benji does not deliver improvement, loyalty must give way to reality.
