Souths are primed, but Penrith remain the finals standard
Souths will survive the Newcastle ambush
South Sydney should win at Allianz because their season has finally come together at precisely the right moment: the squad is mostly healthy, confidence has grown across four weeks and Latrell Mitchell looks back in beast mode. Cody Walker has also found the balance between aggression and control, while Jayden Sullivan is doing an outstanding job in Ashton Ward’s absence.
That does not make Newcastle harmless. They exceeded expectations after taking the Spoon last year, transforming an attack that was like watching paint dry through Justin Holbrook’s positional changes and the emergence of Sandon Smith and the wonderfully versatile Fletcher Sharpe. Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best remain lethal, while Dom Young returns.
The problem is the casualty ward. Newcastle are missing Daniel Saifiti, Dylan Lucas, Dylan Brown and Trey Mooney, with Francis Manuleleua’s availability unclear after an awkward arm injury. I reckon they will punch above their weight and make Souths uncomfortable, particularly against a defence conceding more than 20 points too regularly, but the Bunnies have too many healthy weapons. Souths advance.
Wayne’s greatest strength cannot be counted
Wayne’s record will never be touched, but the numbers are not the most compelling part of his coaching legacy. He is approaching 1,000 NRL games and, once his Brisbane competition career is included, I expect him to finish beyond 1,600. Nobody will get near it.
Yet the moment that mattered was Wayne holding Jai Arrow’s hand as Arrow walked away, emotional amid his battle with motor neurone disease. It revealed the source of Wayne’s longevity: players know the old bloke genuinely cares about them. He treats them like sons, offering comfort when they need it and blunt discipline when they do not.
There is no theatrical ranting or paint stripped from walls. Wayne simply draws the line in black and white, including the warning that repeated misconduct can cost a player his next contract. Give me that clarity over performative fury every day. Players rarely forget a spray, but they never forget who held their hand.
The Warriors’ pack can carry them, if the edges hold
The Warriors possess a premiership-grade forward rotation, and Jackson Ford’s return only deepens an embarrassment of riches. I’m hearing Ford is a very strong chance of playing after being named in the 22-man squad, joining James Fisher-Harris and Mitch Barnett in a pack as good as any in the competition.
Barnett has rebuilt his game after early interruptions and Origin, returning to the elite, hard middle-forward football that makes opponents check where he is before carrying the ball. Aaron Clark has also become a crucial, skilful link between the middles and halves.
The danger is obvious: the Warriors leaked 30 points against Manly and have been carved up on their edges, with injuries and the absences of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak catching up with them. Watene-Zelezniak had a large plate inserted after breaking his collarbone, and I think this week is too early.
The Dolphins have won seven straight, while Jeremy Marshall-King and Wayde Egan are two of the game’s most influential hookers. This is no procession. Still, I guarantee the Warriors will rediscover their own style in the finals; fix the edge defence and their pack can take them deep.
The Sharks & Cowboys are finals cannon fodder
I reckon Cronulla and North Queensland are cannon fodder, regardless of who escapes their elimination final. The winner must then confront the loser of Penrith and the Roosters, and neither side has shown the consistency required to survive that assignment.
Cronulla’s hope rests with Braydon Trindall returning alongside Blayke Brailey. Trindall has previously steered the Sharks through finals into a preliminary final, but this team looked to have peaked six to eight weeks ago, when Nicho Hynes was outstanding; once Trindall was injured, the wheels began spinning.
North Queensland have been erratic all season and now face uncertainty around Reuben Cotter, who fronts the judiciary after his collision with Josh Papalii. The angles I saw looked more like a head clash than shoulder contact, although successful judiciary challenges have become vanishingly rare since the overhaul. Cotter matters, but the bigger problem is structural: I do not trust the Cowboys to produce two strong performances in succession. Whoever survives Saturday is merely delaying the inevitable.
Canberra’s future is bright, but this season was a failure
Coby Black’s record 26-point debut was spectacular, but handing him Ethan Sanders’ jumper after one game would be madness. Black could do no more against a Cowboys side well below its best, yet Sanders endured periods when Canberra’s forwards were failing and deserved Ricky Stuart’s loyalty. Their competition starts again in the pre-season.
The harder verdict is that Canberra’s season was a failure by their standards. They fell from minor premiers to 11th, absorbed several heavy scores and failed to deliver in milestone matches, largely because the close games they won in 2025 escaped them this year.
There is still a serious foundation in Kaiha Weekes, Simi Sasagi, Ethan Strange, Sanders, Black and Owen Pattie, whose outstanding season should accelerate his development. The weakness is the middle: Corey Horsburgh and Joash Papalii are leaving, Lipoi Hopoi has suffered an ACL injury and the Raiders need one or two recruits. They should have salary-cap room, and I reckon they might have kept Trey Mooney if given another chance.
Black’s emergence is also another black eye for Brisbane after he confirmed Michael Maguire was the reason he left and spoke about mixed messages. I rate Maguire, but the Broncos cannot keep losing talent and pretend the picture looks healthy.
Penrith’s no-show was poor form
Penrith earned the right to swagger by winning four consecutive premierships, but snubbing the finals captain’s call was poor form. Every other finalist provided a captain except the Warriors, whose international travel made Roger Tuivasa-Sheck a reasonable replacement; Tom Dearden travelled from Townsville, Tom Gilbert from Redcliffe and Kalyn Ponga from Newcastle, yet neither Penrith captain made a 45-minute morning drive.
Scott Sorensen is a great player and a four-time premiership winner, so this is not a criticism of him. It is about the prestige of the occasion and the responsibility carried by captains. Recovery day is an explanation, not an excuse, particularly when Nathan Cleary appeared on Channel Nine the previous night.
None of that changes the football verdict. Cleary has the September runs on the board, the Panthers have key players returning and the forward who came back after three weeks completed more than 20 tackles without a miss. Penrith remain first and daylight second — but champions should still turn up.
