Souths must solve the spine, while Melbourne face a changing of the guard
Canberra’s hooker shuffle is a calculated risk
Canberra have chosen Owen Pattie as their number nine of the future, and I like the conviction even if the supporting plan carries risk. Tom Starling is leaving for St Helens, Jayden Brailey is heading to Tiger Town and Pattie, a brilliant young hooker, suddenly owns the position rather than sharing it.
The intriguing move would be manufacturing Daine Laurie into the back-up dummy-half role. I reckon that is where Canberra are heading, and while his speed would make him dangerous around tired middles, opponents will send plenty of traffic at him. Creativity is one thing; surviving repeated collisions in the middle is another.
Matty Nicholson has completed an extension, which I think is for three years, while Simi Sasagi has also been secured. Add Zac Hosking, who I reckon remains one of the competition’s most underrated back-rowers, and Canberra’s edge depth is strong. The concern is the middle, particularly after injuries forced Hosking to shift wider this season. The Raiders have made bold calls, but bold calls still need enough heavy bodies to work.
Penrith can raise the tarp, but the real business is retention
Penrith’s black screening is theatre; keeping their champions together is the real operation. The mesh went up after Nathan Cleary was photographed walking and doing light running at training, although the club’s position is that screening is installed every year and the photographs merely accelerated the decision. I don’t recall it being this noticeable every year, but secrecy in late September is hardly a hanging offence.
The important work involves Nathan Cleary, Isaiah, Liam Martin and Moses Leota. Talks have been bubbling away, although Penrith have paused negotiations while sitting 160 minutes from a potential fifth premiership. I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two deals are completed before World Cup commitments, but they are not done deals.
My mail remains that Nathan Cleary is staying. He has been linked with everything from the NFL and European rugby to the All Blacks and the Warriors, while a third party close to him may have had a loose conversation with the Chiefs without figures being discussed. Ivan Cleary leaves the head coaching role after 2027 but is wanted in a consultancy capacity, which matters. Penrith’s dynasty will evolve, not disappear overnight.
Souths cannot pay Latrell like a fullback
South Sydney are right to judge Latrell Mitchell on availability before committing again, and his next deal must be valued as a centre. He has played roughly half a season in each of the past three years, so waiting through the preseason, and possibly until the season begins, is prudence, not disrespect.
That does not mean Souths can ask him to avoid the market while leaving the contract drawer empty. Perth intend to make a serious bid, there has been talk of a $1.7 million package including third parties, and at least three other clubs have contacted his camp about moving from November 1. Souths and Latrell have not discussed figures. If the outside interest is real, he is entitled to hear it.
I still think there is a good chance he stays. Latrell loves Wayne Bennett, his farm, the land and the life he has built on the east coast, while Souths strongly support his Winmarra Foundation work. Moving four children away from their support network is not a minor detail, although neither is potentially leaving seven figures on the table across a contract.
The harder truth is that Souths need spine players more than another expensive centre. Payne Haas improves their front gate, but losing Keon to secure him makes the exchange close to like-for-like, and one elite prop will not repair a side lacking premiership-quality certainty across the key positions. Tallis Duncan is the priority, Jamie Humphreys is set for another two years and Ashton Ward has a huge future, but Bennett still needs to move major pieces. He knows this spine cannot win the competition as presently constructed.
Harry Grant could become Melbourne’s defining loss
Melbourne must pull out every stop to retain Harry Grant because this is no routine contract negotiation; it is the first great test of their next era. Grant has an option for 2028 that remains untaken, and if that does not change he enters his final contracted season from November 1.
I think he will reach that date, and I’m not convinced he stays. Grant touches the ball more than anyone, is the Australian vice-captain and will eventually captain Queensland, so another club will attempt to make him the equal highest-paid player in the game. PNG could overwhelm the market if it wanted, while Queensland clubs, particularly the Gold Coast, make obvious lifestyle sense for a man who loves surfing.
The uncertainty around Craig Bellamy and Cameron Munster matters enormously, as does changed ownership and Melbourne missing the finals for the first time in an age. Joe Bowden may be the succession plan, and Melbourne remain geniuses at identifying emerging number nines, but potential is not a substitute for Grant. This feels like the biggest changing of the guard Melbourne have faced in decades.
Radley finally learned that availability is aggression
Victor Radley has produced one of his best seasons because he finally controlled the chaos instead of allowing it to control him. After entering 2025 feeling the equivalent of chronic fatigue, he overhauled a regime heavy on road and long-distance running, then worked on keeping his feet when fatigue arrived.
The result is one suspension, one head knock and a full season in which his explosiveness returned. That is a remarkable correction for a player who I think had suffered seven head knocks and 11 suspensions across the preceding four seasons, with genuine fears last year that repeated concussions could force him into early retirement.
Radley becomes a free agent on November 1, but I cannot see him leaving the Roosters. He wanted to repay the club after his off-field headlines and suspension, he loves the place and his football now carries the right edge. Controlled violence is still violence; it just spends more time on the field.
The Roosters’ Farnworth pursuit will become a war
The Roosters’ pursuit of Herbie Farnworth will explode from November 1 unless the Dolphins secure him beforehand, and that looming battle captures a contract market already twitching with anxiety. Elite centres rarely reach genuine open-market territory, particularly ones capable of changing the shape of a contender immediately.
Meanwhile, the finals deserve the noise surrounding them. Penrith remain the benchmark, but the Roosters and Dolphins have enough strike to produce a brutal contest, even if both have previously conceded 50 points and therefore carry defensive scars no contender can disguise. I expect this finals series to be an all-time one because there is talent everywhere, but reputations will not survive soft defence. September has no interest in anyone’s highlights reel.
