The Broncos are leaking, the wildcard is a rort and the NRL finally got one right
The Raiders beat the Chiefs at their own game
Hudson Young will stay in Canberra on $1.1 million a season, and I think this circus is finally settling down because Don Furner outplayed the Chiefs when it mattered.
The Chiefs were prepared to offer Young $900,000 tax-free, which would have left him significantly better off than Canberra’s taxable offer, but Furner publicly asked the obvious question: how could a player valued at $1.1 million leave for $900,000? The NRL answered it properly. Young would count as $1.1 million on the Chiefs’ cap, so they withdrew.
Young appears ready to accept Canberra’s flat offer and I expect the contract to be signed within weeks. I originally thought $1.1 million was high, but the Raiders used that valuation as a weapon and protected their roster.
As for the radio claims involving Max King, I’ve been told categorically there is no offer and he will not join the Chiefs. They suspect somebody floated it to ruffle Phil Gould’s feathers. That sort of noise belongs in the bin.
Notional value finally grows some teeth
I think the NRL made a smart call on Young because tax-free salaries give the Chiefs a recruiting advantage that must be checked through the salary cap. Without that mechanism, the contest is tilted before negotiations begin.
The old notional-value system compared representative players in similar positions, but it became corrupted and the Jack Wighton case never passed the pub test. Canberra offered him more to stay, yet he joined South Sydney saying he wanted to win a premiership. Clubs should not be punished when a rival secures their player below the highest genuine offer.
The emerging principle is cleaner: the best offer becomes the cap value elsewhere, even if the new club pays less. Young will be financially worse off by staying in Canberra, but that does not make the NRL’s ruling wrong.
I don’t think players can challenge it because their contracts contain an agreement not to attack the cap. A rogue player may try and would probably have a restraint-of-trade argument, but the consequences would be enormous. The cap does not spread talent as advertised; it stops clubs spending themselves broke.
Boyd is the right Queensland gamble
Darius Boyd is a good appointment as Queensland coach. He has coached the under-19s well, fits the profile Queensland wanted and, with Wayne Bennett helping him, should select the right team.
That is the heart of Origin coaching. Bennett’s great strength was never dressing up simple football as advanced science; he understood what his team needed and picked players who could supply it. Kurt Caywell at centre and Tony Carroll in the side drew criticism, but Bennett saw their contribution before everyone else did.
I thought Matt Ballin was clearly the early choice, although I think Bennett’s support pushed Boyd across the line. Boyd can be gnarly, dislikes being cornered and will now discover how different the game looks from the other side of the questions, but he has matured considerably. Give him a chance.
The Broncos are preparing Maguire’s execution
The Broncos can dress this up however they like. I’m not buying it. Moving Michael Maguire onto a standard employment agreement has one obvious purpose: make him cheaper to sack. There is no other sensible explanation.
Clubs preach stability when it suits them. They claim coaches need certainty to recruit players, shape rosters and run football programs. Now Brisbane want uncertainty written into Maguire’s employment. That tells every player, staffer and rival club the coach is already standing on the trapdoor.
Then there is the review. Maguire is working inside the club every day while the chairman conducts a deep dive from a distance. They are plainly not in sync. Worse, details supposedly locked inside the club keep leaking. That is not transparency. It is self-preservation. People leak to protect themselves and wound somebody else.
This is not governance. It is an execution being prepared by committee. If the Broncos want Maguire gone, they should find the courage to sack him and wear the cost. Instead, they appear to be building the cheapest exit possible while pretending it is administration. Weak.
The wildcard is a television rort
The wildcard proposal is embarrassing. An 18-team competition will probably send 10 clubs into the finals next year, making 27 rounds little more than an extended sorting exercise for mediocrity.
The NFL uses wildcards because 32 teams play only 17 games in an unequal schedule. Its system tries to prevent strong conferences unfairly eliminating worthy teams. The NRL is not solving that problem. It is creating two extra games to sell.
Consulting broadcasters is theatre because live sport remains one of the few reliable money-makers in media. No broadcaster will reject two extra NRL matches unless the asking price is absurd, and broadcasters are not employed to protect the code’s integrity. They make money.
That is why the decision must belong to the game, not the television schedule. Newcastle against Canterbury and North Queensland against Manly would not have crowds lining the streets. The NRL knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Finals momentum will expose the pretenders
Canterbury should beat Brisbane, although the Broncos have enough firepower to cause trouble if they start fast and suddenly become interested. The new kickoff rule may be trialled, but there is no guarantee it proceeds and players might refuse to follow it.
The Dolphins should account for Gold Coast after five straight wins, yet long streaks create their own mental trap as everyone begins waiting for the loss. The Titans have faced top-eight teams for five consecutive weeks, remained competitive and undoubtedly improved under Josh Hannay, who I think is doing a very good job.
South Sydney should handle a Roosters side resting almost its entire team, securing a home final unless something ridiculous happens. Wayne Bennett will likely remove key players once the result is settled, so the final 20 minutes could become an absolute stinker.
The Warriors are rolling with energy and consistency, but Manly can scare them because Fa’alalo has fixed the five-eighth problem created by Luke Brooks’ absence, while Tom Trbojevic is back at fullback.
Cronulla need the reset, while the Dragons have found a pulse
North Queensland should beat Canberra, but the Raiders remain dangerous when they start quickly and create second-phase football. Their problem is not talent; it is inconsistency, poor decisions and a kicking game below the required standard.
Melbourne will finish outside the finals but will not surrender meekly, particularly against a Cronulla side resting players and playing terribly. Cronulla look ragged and tired, so a complete reset makes more sense than forcing exhausted players to chase form one week before the finals.
The Dragons can finish with something resembling pride. Dean Young has brought young players into the side, their enthusiasm has transformed the mood and I think they will beat a Parramatta team desperate for the season to end. Ronald Volkman re-signing gives the Eels at least one constructive note.
Penrith will put a score on the Wests Tigers. The Tigers promised plenty early and delivered an ordinary season, while Penrith are finding form and regain Mitch Kenny, a major inclusion, alongside other returning players.
