The NRL built the Chiefs as a tax-free super-team, now it must own the fall-out
PNG Chiefs are making parity a punchline
The Chiefs have signed seven players for 2028 and every one has represented at Origin level or higher. Joey Manu was inevitable once they chased him, while Alex Johnston, the least decorated of the seven, has represented Australia and owns rugby league’s try-scoring record.
Johnston is not the greatest winger ever, but he is one of the greatest finishers because his football brain compensates for what he lacks in raw power and speed. He stays onside, never overruns the ball and creates separation before the defence can touch him.
Now stand that recruitment beside the Bears, who begin training in three months and are battling to attract a recognisable name. The NRL has preached salary-cap parity for 30 years, yet it owns the Chiefs and has handed them a tax-free advantage. I think this roster could come back to haunt and embarrass the administration, particularly when it becomes an embarrassment of riches before the club has played a game.
Hudson Young is the NRL’s first real integrity test
Hudson Young looks headed for a choice between Canberra and the Chiefs, and this is where the NRL’s cosy expansion model gets ugly. Canberra reportedly offered him $1.1 million a season, the biggest offer in the club’s history, and has given him a week to speak with the Chiefs before returning.
Young is Canberra’s best player. The Raiders paid overs to remove him from a troubled environment, helped develop him and turned him into a player who would have ranked among New South Wales’ top three in the current Origin series. Loyalty cannot compete with tax policy, but the salary cap must.
The NRL uses notional values to stop stars signing for absurdly low figures. Young can be compared with Liam Martin and possibly Ola Kwatu, so Canberra’s offer gives the administration a clean valuation. If the Chiefs sign him below that figure because tax-free money leaves him better off, the NRL must still charge the proper value. Anything else rigs the competition.
Clubs took the cash and surrendered their voice
The clubs helped create this mess. They were offered roughly $3 million or $4 million as an incentive to admit Papua New Guinea, focused on the cheque, accepted it and then began complaining about the consequences.
Now there is nowhere meaningful to protest. The game has surrendered its ability to reject bad ideas and demand something better, while the Chiefs can reportedly recruit players at slightly below their notional values and still leave them financially well ahead through tax-free earnings. Jarome Luai is on about $1.1 million at the Tigers and was offered $1.2 million tax-free; I think the Chiefs are generally seeking players at roughly 80 per cent of their value elsewhere.
Joey Manu’s possible return from French rugby exposes another loophole. If he comes back, the Roosters will find room, but his notional value is unclear because he would be arriving from rugby. A rival club could restore him to NRL pace, only for him to join the Chiefs and beat that same club the following year. Farce.
The Roosters slept through the ambush
The Roosters were dreadful against the Wests Tigers, and their eight-game winning run bought them no protection once their energy disappeared. The Tigers had lost eight straight, yet by the time the Roosters realised they were in a contest, the game was escaping them.
I wonder whether the Roosters had completed the heavy running block teams use three weeks before the finals, topping up fitness before reducing workloads and freshening players. That would explain the heavy legs, but it does not excuse Daly Cherry-Evans going missing while Sam Walker worked himself into the ground without enough help.
The loss has thrown the competition open and pushed the Roosters onto Penrith’s side of the finals draw. That is dangerous. They have beaten Penrith only twice since 2020, and Penrith remain a bad match-up for them.
The HIA stoppage changed the finish
The referee’s decision to stop play and order Victor Radley off for an HIA helped the Tigers manufacture the winning field-goal shape. That is not conspiracy. It is sequence and consequence.
Jarome Luai plays at a frantic tempo and the Tigers have repeatedly skipped sideways into terrible field-goal position this year, sometimes ending up three metres from the sideline. The stoppage allowed them to breathe, compose themselves and reset, while players probably caught in the wrong positions could move where they belonged. They restarted properly organised and the play ultimately produced the field goal.
Radley fell awkwardly, but it was not an obvious concussion incident and he appeared surprised by the call. Player welfare must remain paramount, yet an unusual referee intervention changed the tactical conditions at the decisive moment. The game cannot pretend otherwise.
Stop treating fans like mugs over Tedesco
The NRL should force clubs to disclose the genuine nature of injuries and a realistic recovery window. James Tedesco was named and withdrawn late for three consecutive games, while the Roosters kept the detail dark and Trent Robinson conceded the problem sat slightly above the ankle.
Phil Gould referred to membrane damage in commentary, and people experienced in sporting injuries believe the combined information could indicate four to six weeks out, with possible ongoing problems but no permanent career impact. That timeline remains an informed possibility, not a confirmed diagnosis.
The clubs are operating within the rules, so this is an NRL failure. Fans buy tickets because stars are named, and they are entitled to know whether those players are realistic chances of appearing. One touch-and-go withdrawal is understandable. Repeating the trick for three weeks is not. The NFL has demanded meaningful availability information for years. Rugby league’s secrecy is backward and unfair.
Webster has built the smartest team in the competition
The Warriors are not surviving disruption. They are mastering it. Chanel Harris-Tavita became their fourth halfback of the year and looked comfortable enough to start in the position at another club because Andrew Webster has built football intelligence through the entire side.
Mitchell Barnett, James Fisher-Harris and Erin Clark know where to stand and what their jobs demand, which stops the halfback becoming buried beneath field position, attacking shape and personnel calls. Warriors players understand their own roles and everybody else’s, so replacements can slide into unfamiliar positions without the whole structure collapsing.
That intelligence also produced the brilliant late field goal which turned an 18-point margin into 19 and moved the Warriors one point ahead of Penrith on differential. Finishing first matters because the minor premiers host fourth place. The Warriors, Panthers and Roosters remain well clear of everybody else, but Webster’s side currently owns the sharpest edge.
The chasing pack is full of frauds and faint hopes
Nobody outside the top three should win this competition, although this strange season keeps threatening something ridiculous. The Dolphins have conceded more than 50 points twice, and no team conceding 50 has ever won the premiership.
Cronulla were awful against the Titans. Nicho Hynes looked under siege and is not currently the playmaker the Sharks need, while Braydon Trindall cannot return quickly enough. Superior talent eventually got Cronulla home, not a coherent football plan, and that rubbish will be exposed in the finals.
Newcastle also ran out of energy against Manly, and I think they have overachieved across the season. Tom Trbojevic returned, Faalalo excelled at five-eighth and Manly simply had too much firepower; Newcastle’s top-four ambition is now a dream, although sixth would secure a home final.
The Bulldogs remain mathematically alive after improving against the Dragons, but they need two wins and another result to fall their way. With Penrith away ahead and the fresh Cowboys still in front, I think Canterbury’s finals chase is finished.
