Newcastle are no fairytale, they have the steel to finish this extraordinary job

Crossland had to go, but he is no villain

Phoenix Crossland had to be sent off, and Newcastle are right to contest his judiciary case anyway. Those positions are not contradictory: the tackle ended catastrophically, the NRL has been trying to remove hip drops, and a send-off plus suspension is consistent with that crackdown. I reckon Crossland will receive four to six weeks.

But intent matters when judging the man, even if the outcome matters when judging the tackle. Crossland began around Nathan Cleary’s upper body, lost his legs while defending his own line and finished in a dreadful position. He got it wrong; he did not set out to cause a double compound fracture.

The uncomfortable problem is consistency. Victor Radley’s tackle was not vastly different, yet he escaped with a $3,000 fine because it did not produce the same horrific injury. Rugby league cannot pretend consequences are irrelevant when everybody’s reaction changes the moment the medicab and green whistle appear.

Cleary showed exceptional class by publicly telling people not to target Crossland. Social-media heroes looking for a villain should follow his lead and pull their heads in.

Holbrook has built a team that looks like Newcastle

Justin Holbrook must be Coach of the Year. I previously had Ivan Cleary in front because Penrith kept humming despite the constant turnover of players and coaches, but Newcastle’s past month has made Holbrook impossible to overlook.

This is not merely a tactical revival. Holbrook, Brett White and Stephen Hales have built a happy, fearless football team that plays expansively even when the weather says not to. Newcastle kept shifting the ball in heavy rain against Penrith because retreating into a style they did not believe in would have been the greater risk.

Mat Croker captures the change better than any star. He endured last year’s wooden spoon, has played only for Newcastle and was pounding his chest, emblem and heart after the preliminary-final win. I reckon he embodies the blue-collar identity Holbrook sought by taking the squad into the mines and reminding them whom they represent.

The grand final is sold out and I suspect close to 70 per cent of the crowd will be wearing red and blue. Newcastle supporters stayed rusted on through pedestrian football and a wooden spoon. They have earned this week.

Marky Mark is the Roosters’ grand-final detonator

Marky Mark is already an elite winger and the player most capable of tearing this grand final open from nothing. It is only his second season and I think he has played 47 NRL games, yet his awareness separates him from the game’s other great athletes: when a play appears dead, he can kick, throw a one-handed pass or manufacture a try from half a chance.

Wendell Sailor and Lote Tuqiri were effectively extra forwards, combining frightening carries with speed and skill, but I’m starting to think Marky Mark has an even broader skillset. That is an enormous call, although his two tries against the Dolphins showed why it is no longer a silly one.

He is going to rugby union and will collect serious money, which nobody should begrudge. The frustration is that rugby league is losing him just as he is beginning to understand how devastating he can become. For now, the Roosters possess the complete package on the wing, with James Tedesco at fullback allowing him to stay where he is most destructive.

The Roosters should not change a winning pack

Trent Robinson should resist the temptation to force Spencer Leniu into his grand-final rotation. Leniu is a State of Origin and international forward who can create momentum or produce a violent defensive shot few others can, but the Roosters reached this game while leaving him on the bench for the entire win over the Dolphins.

That was not an insult to Leniu; it was a declaration of extraordinary depth. Victor Radley was outstanding, Lindsay Collins returned to his best and Angus Crichton looked damaging through the middle, while Connor Watson is expected to play after being symptom-free. If there is no compelling reason to alter that balance, Robinson should not manufacture one.

Leniu’s volatility is part of the calculation. He can break a game open, but he can also lose control and cost his side. In a grand final likely to turn on one lapse, having him available without being obliged to use him is a luxury.

The Roosters’ more pressing task is to attack Kalyn Ponga’s positioning. When Ponga defends in the line near his own try line, Sam Walker’s short kicking game can expose the space behind him. That is the tactical pressure point Newcastle must solve.

Penrith panicked, and Newcastle sensed it

Penrith’s dynasty did not end because Newcastle caught them cold; the Panthers looked tense all week and then blinked at six-all. They trained behind closed doors, Ivan Cleary appeared agitated before kick-off and Nathan Cleary was introduced earlier than expected, despite the match being level and Penrith repeatedly attacking Newcastle’s line.

I thought it was a panic decision. Nathan looked sharp and nearly broke the line, but if the plan was to protect him from an existing injury, bringing him on because Newcastle were refusing to buckle undermined the whole strategy. The subsequent tackle was an accident, but the decision to expose him earlier belonged to Penrith.

Newcastle were the opposite: open, relaxed and comfortable with the occasion. That contrast recalled the 2001 grand-final breakfast, when Parramatta looked as stiff as statues while Newcastle were loose enough to throw bread rolls around. Pressure does not always announce itself on the scoreboard. Sometimes it appears on faces days earlier, and the Knights recognised it before Penrith did.