Newcastle can topple the stars, but league’s fatigue problem won’t disappear on Sunday
Newcastle have the football to do it
Newcastle’s route to the premiership is ball movement, not a wrestling match with the Roosters’ superior roster. Shift their big men sideways, keep the ball alive and make their explosive defence pay an energy bill it cannot keep meeting.
The Knights are missing Dylan Brown, Jacob Saifiti, Trey Mooney and Phoenix Crossland, yet their passage through South Sydney and Penrith has made them battle-hardened rather than merely hopeful. I think they genuinely believe they can finish this extraordinary run.
The Roosters have the clear advantage in the halves, although Sandon Smith’s performance against Penrith was magnificent, while Kalyn Ponga supplies elite playmaking beyond the numbers on the jerseys. Representative experience matters; it is not a padlock on the trophy cabinet, as Manly proved with a first-season Daly Cherry-Evans in 2011.
Newcastle should attack Billy Smith and Daniel Tupou through Dane Gagai’s experience and Dom Young’s speed. I reckon Tupou has lost pace, and quick service can expose that edge before the Knights return through the middle. Their passes must stick. This is an upset with a blueprint, not a wish.
Incumbency cannot become a moving target
Australia’s fullback selection must follow a consistent principle: form cannot remove one incumbent and then become irrelevant when the next incumbent struggles.
Reece Walsh deserved the jumper last year through his late-season brilliance, but his season has fallen below that standard. My preference remains Dylan Edwards, whose torn PCL leaves his availability uncertain; seeing his knee in a brace at the Dally M awards hardly settled that question.
If James Tedesco dominates Sunday and wins the Clive Churchill Medal, I suspect the selectors will insist his form deserves recognition. Kevin Walters cannot treat incumbency as a rule that changes with the applicant.
Monday’s 24-man squad for the Rugby League World Cup also gives Sunday enormous selection weight. My mail is Sam Walker could displace Mitchell Moses at halfback if he excels and wins the Churchill, with Nathan Cleary unavailable. Tommy Turbo looks likely to land on a wing, and his Australian record warrants it. I think Bradman Best, Bobby Tuia and Latrell Mitchell all make the squad, but a fit, firing Latrell should start.
Preston starts, Fifita supplies the thunder
Jacob Preston should start alongside Liam Martin because consistency earns its place before destructiveness gets to audition. Preston runs the hard under line and defends for his half; David Fifita’s gap between his best and ordinary football remains too wide.
I would use Fifita from the bench around the 25-to-30-minute mark, when his power and fast feet can attack tiring middles. That is a role, not a demotion.
Harry Grant will be hooker and Lindsay Collins will make the squad, while Pat Carrigan has a very good chance. Keon’s Australian allegiance is another enormous positive: his workload, late footwork and 80-minute capacity make him the game’s most underrated prop in my book. The Dragons have secured an outstanding signing; South Sydney have surrendered one.
Welfare needs more than another suspension
Player welfare requires more interchanges, not another lecture about getting fitter. Keep the six-again rule, which rescued the game from its previous crawl, but reconsider how much fatigue the competition deliberately manufactures.
The hip-drop tackle that injured Nathan Cleary was a nasty accident, and Crossland has accepted his punishment with class. Cleary’s response has been equally impressive. None of that makes the tackle acceptable; it means prevention must extend beyond suspending the exhausted bloke who makes it.
I doubt the tackle can be eliminated at this speed. Injuries consume interchange options, while training-load controls rightly limit what players can do in preparation. Demanding more during matches without providing relief is a welfare policy with its shoelaces tied together.
Connor Watson’s availability remains unresolved despite his listing at number 14. He looked badly affected to me, but another independent doctor appointed by the National Rugby League makes the final call, not anyone squinting at footage.
I expect senior players to seek an off-season meeting through the Rugby League Players Association. The commission chairman will listen; I am less confident he will bend. Listening needs to produce something.
Farnworth’s link deserves daylight
Herbie Farnworth’s BYD connection warrants scrutiny, not a declaration that he is already heading to Bondi. His Dolphins teammates sledged him after he promoted the Roosters’ major sponsor, although the arrangement is personal and has apparently existed for 18 months.
I would ask for the documents and communications behind it. Shared management with James Tedesco, Reece Robson and Daly Cherry-Evans makes the connection interesting, not proof of wrongdoing.
The Dolphins will make a substantial retention offer, and they should. Farnworth has almost carried them into a grand final; speculation about his departure cannot become a substitute for getting his signature.
Canberra should protect what it has built
Canberra are right to secure Ethan Sanders and stretch for Hudson Young rather than let recruitment envy dismantle their own work.
Sanders will extend through 2028, with an announcement looking likely early next week. Coby Black’s outstanding Townsville debut creates a selection problem, not a reason to forget Sanders’ strong season. I like Ethan Strange at five-eighth; his size and footwork might eventually suit lock, but there is no need to rush that experiment.
Young’s four-year offer at $1.1 million a season is the richest in Raiders history. As a senior leader and a likely future captain, he should recognise the commitment and return it.
Last year’s minor premiership and straight-sets exit do not cancel each other out. Canberra’s emerging talent says this club is primed, and I would rather preserve that foundation than chase somebody else’s glamour.
Cleary still has mountains to climb
Nathan Cleary should stay at Penrith because completing a résumé is not the same as completing a career. Ivan Cleary wants him there beyond next season, and I understand why.
Four premiership rings now sit alongside the Dally M, Wally Lewis and Brad Fittler medals after a dominant State of Origin series. Missing the grand final and World Cup is disappointing, but hardly evidence the challenge has disappeared. There are more seasons to command and more standards to raise.
