Penrith’s dynasty faces its greatest threat & the danger starts on November 1
Cleary must be Penrith’s first domino
Penrith must settle Nathan Cleary’s future before the expansion clubs turn the market into the Wild West. He is among a stack of stars off contract beyond 2027, Penrith want his situation resolved first because it shapes every deal behind him, and the tax-free money attached to Papua New Guinea’s 2028 arrival changes a conversation that would otherwise be straightforward.
I still expect Cleary and Isaah Yeo to stay. Cleary is the best player in the game, enormously marketable and has matured into a leader who ticks every box, while Ivan Cleary remaining involved with Penrith in some capacity should carry genuine weight. But sentiment does not balance a salary cap, particularly when Perth arrives next year and rival clubs can start turning heads from November 1.
Liam Martin is the danger. I’ve consistently heard his name linked to Papua New Guinea since the tax-free lure became a major issue, and although I would love him to remain a Panther, Penrith cannot keep everybody. Martin is a low-maintenance, big-game footballer who would be ideal for a new club trying to establish standards rather than merely print jerseys.
Forget contracts: Auckland is the immediate examination
Penrith’s only useful obsession this week is beating the Warriors, because premiership campaigns are not won in negotiation rooms. This is possibly the best Friday night football line-up of the season, beginning in Auckland before the Roosters host Canterbury, and the first match will tell us whether the Warriors are genuine contenders or merely comfortable occupants of the top four.
They have been underwhelming over the past month and beating the bottom-four Titans did not answer the hard question. A performance against Penrith will. The Warriors need to push for second place because a home final would be enormous, but a flattering ladder position offers no protection once the finals begin; the Dogs and Canberra both went out in straight sets last year.
Andrew Webster has given the Warriors the balance they lacked for years, marrying flamboyant attack with resilience, while recruiting hard men such as James Fisher-Harris and dependable winners such as Kurt Capewell. Erin Clark’s evolution from dummy-half into a robust, ball-playing lock has been outstanding. The cattle are there. Now they must prove they can handle the Panthers when the examination becomes uncomfortable.
Cogger has earned the No.6 jersey
Jack Cogger should remain alongside Cleary because he makes Penrith less predictable. He is a genuine half and secondary kicker who opens Cleary’s running game, and we saw in the 2023 grand final how quickly he could unlock Penrith when Jarome Luai left the field.
Cogger mounted a strong case against Canberra despite emerging looking as though he had completed 12 rounds with Mike Tyson. Blaize Talagi is electric, but I would use him as bench insurance rather than disturb a halves combination that is working; bringing him into the contest as a third playmaker against tired defensive lines could create havoc.
The greater concern is Mitch Kenny, whose recovery from a broken leg and syndesmosis injury has stalled despite successful ankle surgery. He is expected to need another three or four weeks after suffering setbacks during rehabilitation running, although Freddy Lussick has been such an effective like-for-like replacement that Kenny’s absence has occasionally become easy to overlook. Penrith can survive without him now. They need him cherry ripe when September starts asking harder questions.
Walker and Daly have found the winning hierarchy
Sam Walker must own the Roosters and Daly Cherry-Evans must remain the experienced hand who knows precisely when to intervene. Their combination was initially clunky, which was natural, but Walker’s Origin campaign gave him the confidence to make the big calls and Trent Robinson has handled the transition superbly by allowing him to operate as the primary shot-caller.
Cherry-Evans can still change momentum with one decision, as he showed against the Cowboys when he demanded the ball and kicked a 40-20, but his greatest value is knowing when Walker is becoming too loose. Walker then took control in good-ball territory and produced a clinic. That hierarchy is now humming.
Still, an 82-point demolition proves very little about September. The ball was in play for only 45 minutes, the Cowboys had possession for just 16, and the match became touch football. Canterbury will bring an entirely different contest at Allianz Stadium, even with Sitili Tupouniua returning on the Dogs’ bench. Walker’s freewheeling brilliance is box-office football, but it still needs to be pressure-tested in the major finals.
Munster should become the face of Perth
Cameron Munster joining the Perth Bears makes far more sense than him disappearing into a Papua New Guinea compound. Perth has struggled to recruit a marquee player and I’ve heard there are people who want the club to pursue him, although Melbourne only gave Munster permission to speak with Papua New Guinea.
Munster is still named to play despite Melbourne’s season being over, which says plenty about his loyalty, and Craig Bellamy may want him building combinations with young halfback Hayden Watson while Jahrome Hughes is unavailable. But if Melbourne is prepared to let him leave after next year, Perth is the obvious destination.
Munster offers leadership, culture and marketability in one wonderfully unpredictable package. He could become the face of the game in Western Australia and, just as importantly, a recruitment tool who makes a cross-country move dramatically more appealing to other players. Papua New Guinea may offer the late-career payday; Perth offers the chance to build something with his name on the front door.
Hynes can carry Cronulla into second
Nicho Hynes can run down Cleary for the Dally M while carrying Cronulla into second place. His form has been phenomenal, his resilience after being chewed up at representative level deserves enormous credit, and 32 consecutive conversions leaves him only three short of Hazem El Masri.
Cronulla’s run home includes St George Illawarra, Canberra, Gold Coast, Parramatta and Melbourne, without Penrith or the Warriors. I expect them to pass the Roosters and Warriors, although any home final must be moved away from Shark Park because the venue is not fit to host it. Hynes has worn the criticism for years. Now he has the football and the draw to deliver the answer.
Brisbane believed their own publicity
The Broncos’ premiership defence failed because they behaved as though last year’s success granted them right of entry to another grand final. It did not.
They have too many egos and individuals and not enough evidence of a team, producing a season that has fallen desperately flat by their standards. Premierships demand humility because every opponent spends the next year trying to knock the crown off. Brisbane arrived expecting the crown to remain screwed on.
