Horsburgh needs mongrel, not mayhem
Corey Horsburgh remains a valuable forward, but his emotions cannot keep boiling over whenever the temperature rises. His activity contributed to the flare-up with Dane Gagai during Canberra’s loss to Newcastle, and while social media drew some ugly conclusions from the vision, I found it inconclusive and there is insufficient evidence to overturn the on-field decision. No accusation should be made without evidence. End of story.
The larger issue is Horsburgh’s future. He is contracted to Canberra through next season and has been heavily linked with Brisbane, but I’ve heard the Perth Bears are now more likely to sign him. Junior Paulo’s camp and the Bears are still understood to be apart on price, with his agent seeking about $900,000 across a two-year deal, which helps explain why the younger Horsburgh has become attractive.
Perth need some madness in their pack, but controlled madness. Horsburgh can supply the mongrel alongside calmer heads such as Scott Sorensen; he just has to realise passion is an asset only until it becomes a liability.
The Chiefs’ advantage is real — so scrutinise it properly
The Papua New Guinea Chiefs are not mucking around; they are building a roster with an advantage rival clubs badly underestimated. Hudson Young is the latest major target gathering momentum, although recruitment boss Liam Ayoub was adamant nothing has yet been done and called the reports rumours. Both facts matter: there is credible noise, but there is no official offer.
Young will be 29 when he starts and turn 30 during his first season, which is hardly ancient for a back-rower in elite condition. I reckon his open-market value could reach about $1.1 million a season, and tax-free income makes the Chiefs’ proposition potentially life-changing.
That advantage demands scrutiny, particularly around third-party arrangements. The rules require those deals to operate at arm’s length, without clubs making introductions or steering players into them. Nobody is suggesting impropriety, but PNG’s concentrated commercial market — one national team with limited local stars competing for sponsorship — is fundamentally different from Sydney’s diluted market. The Chiefs deserve applause for recruiting efficiently; the game also deserves transparent, consistently enforced rules.
Penrith’s hoodoo has the Roosters by the throat
There is no such thing as a useful loss when the opponent has beaten you 12 times in 13 meetings. The Roosters’ record against Penrith since 2020 is shocking, and another defeat would not provide a cleansing reality check; it would deepen the psychological scar they must eventually overcome to win the competition.
Penrith have endured a rough month, losing to the Warriors after earlier defeats against Brisbane, Gold Coast and North Queensland, but four premierships in five years buy more than patience. They buy certainty when matches become uncomfortable. Dylan Edwards is expected back from a shoulder injury, while the five-eighth decision remains fascinating after Jack Cole’s surprise selection and Jack Cogger’s absence.
I think Penrith will win. The Roosters have come through a draining fortnight and had to scrap past Canterbury, while Penrith will arrive intent on restoring their physical authority. If the Roosters want the trophy, they must eventually go through the side living inside their heads. Thursday is their chance, not a defeat they somehow need.
Canterbury cannot waste this opening
Canterbury’s season is on the line against South Sydney, and this is the match they cannot afford to drop because Penrith and Brisbane still await. The Bulldogs should have beaten the Roosters, only for Connor Tracey to literally let the ball bounce late, but their gritty scramble defence has returned and that is the weapon required against a Rabbitohs side capable of manufacturing points from anywhere.
Sitili Tupouniua definitely will not play this week and it looks as though his season is over, a serious blow at precisely the wrong time. Even so, Canterbury showed enough against the Roosters to win this match.
South Sydney’s uncertainty extends beyond Friday. Jayden Sullivan will win the No.7 jumper, but the longer-term spine remains unsettled, while I reckon there is major doubt over whether Latrell Mitchell plays again this season as his camp consults the back surgeon who saved Anthony Minichiello’s career. Canterbury have the clearer identity. They must prove it when the stakes finally bite.
Ryles has earned time, not immunity
Jason Ryles deserves latitude in his second season, but Parramatta’s below-average results cannot be wrapped indefinitely in the language of rebuilding. The Dylan Brown situation destabilised the club, while Ryles got the calls right on Clint Gutherson and Isaiah Papali'i, yet the Eels entered this season with hope after winning six of their final eight games and have gone backwards.
Even for 12 months, he would bring winning habits from a premiership juggernaut and teach a young roster how serious clubs operate. Ronald Volkman was among Parramatta’s best against South Sydney and can do little more, but Luai is an international and Origin playmaker with proven success.
Next season is the line in the sand. Parramatta’s key positions are signed long-term, the roster has been reshaped and expectations will rise. If they start slowly, the drums around Ryles will become deafening — and fairly so.
Metcalf vindicated the Warriors’ nerve
The Warriors were absolutely right to refuse Luke Metcalf an early release. The Dragons pushed for him, but a club inside a premiership window does not surrender halfback depth merely to tidy its salary cap, and Metcalf’s performance against Penrith proved why.
This was not an injury-driven coaching masterstroke. It was smart roster management by Andrew Webster and Cameron George, followed by a player responding properly to adversity. Tanah Boyd had been outstanding, another option then seized his chance, and Metcalf had to work in reserve grade while waiting for the jumper he wanted. When the opportunity returned, he took it emphatically and will retain the No.7.
That is the lesson for every dropped player: stay engaged because rugby league changes without asking permission. Metcalf went from creating some behind-the-scenes rumblings to delivering against Penrith when the Warriors needed him most. Adversity did not break him; it sharpened him.
Newcastle are no fairytale — they are genuinely dangerous
Newcastle’s rise from wooden-spoon territory to finals contention is one of the season’s best achievements, and Justin Holbrook should be near the front of the coach-of-the-year conversation. Injuries have repeatedly forced changes through the spine, yet the Knights have adapted instead of retreating into excuses.
Kalyn Ponga is the reason the ceiling has lifted. I reckon he is in career-best form and exerting more influence than during his Dally M Medal season because he has fewer established stars around him and has assumed greater responsibility as a primary playmaker. Francis Manuleleua has enormous potential, Fletcher Sharpe has moved between five-eighth, centre and fullback, while Peter O’Sullivan’s recruitment has given Holbrook genuine flexibility.
Last year Newcastle’s attack was predictable enough to put a glass eye to sleep. Now they move the ball, attack both sides and accept the risk required to score. That transformation is coaching, recruitment and courage working together. The Knights are not merely happy to reach September; they can damage somebody when they get there.
