PNG Chiefs are building a monster & the NRL have written the instructions

The Chiefs have raided Penrith — and Cleary could be next

Brian To'o leaving Penrith for the Papua New Guinea Chiefs at the end of next year shocks nobody except for the timing. He grew up with Jarome Luai, they are best friends and Luai was his best man, so there is no doubt Luai sold him the opportunity.

To'o is not merely another winger. He has scored 99 tries and remains the best winger in the game at launching sets from kick returns, which makes him another vital piece ripped from the Penrith machine.

Willie Peters is assembling serious representative talent and genuine depth, which an expansion club desperately needs in an injury-heavy competition. The Chiefs already have six players who would nearly make any NRL side.

Then comes Nathan Cleary. He delayed extension talks until after Origin, then until after the finals, and I daresay the World Cup will be next. By November he can legally negotiate with the Chiefs. I don't know that he will go, but everybody can see the road. I'm led to believe Luai will earn well beyond $3 million through third-party agreements there, while Cleary would nearly double it. The Chiefs are exploiting their advantages brilliantly. The disgrace is that the NRL gave them those advantages.

Penrith are wounded, not dead

Anybody putting a line through Penrith because Isaah Yeo is injured has learned nothing. The Warriors outmuscled them and deserved the win, but after Yeo left, Nathan Cleary understood the adjustments and Penrith fought back against a genuine premiership threat.

The scans found a partial pectoral tear rather than a full rupture, so Yeo does not require surgery and will undergo intense physiotherapy. The depth of the tear remains unknown, but muscles generally heal within a month to six weeks and I reckon he will be back by the preliminary final at the latest. Penrith will take every available step and, if necessary, Yeo will probably accept some risk.

More importantly, Penrith now get four or five weeks to train without him. They can rebuild the machine deliberately rather than improvise after ten minutes. This competition has been shaken wide open, but Penrith can still win it.

The Roosters must finally crack the Penrith code

The Roosters are equal first, but Penrith remain their measuring stick and their tormentor. The Roosters may have won only one of their past 12 against them because Penrith's systematic pressure strips the glamour from their entertaining football and slowly chokes it.

Luke Keary admitted Penrith were the only side that forced the Roosters to overhaul their style. I dare suggest they still haven't solved it. Yeo's absence gives them an opening, but they must prove they can stay in the fight when Penrith squeeze.

Their great strength is game management. Daly Cherry-Evans was magnificent against Canterbury, keeping his head while Canterbury surrendered an 18-8 lead with 20 minutes remaining, probably because their inexperienced halves could not close the game. The Roosters manage the result from 20 minutes out; Parramatta and Wests butchered the final 15 minutes because they waited too long. That difference wins big games.

Metcalf has earned the Warriors' No.7 jersey

Luke Metcalf should keep the halfback jumper if he produces another performance like Friday night. The Warriors had probably drifted over the previous month, but Metcalf restored their powerful edge by steering them around, kicking well and playing behind forwards who punched straight through Penrith.

Te Maire Martin might miss another week, which makes Andrew Webster's immediate call easier. After that, reputation cannot decide it. Both men have played well at seven, but the jersey belongs to whoever is playing the better football and serving the team. Another strong game probably allows Metcalf to steal it back. Good coaches reward form. They don't hide behind incumbency.

Cronulla needed the slap — the Dragons earned it

Cronulla's loss to the last-placed Dragons was ugly, but it is not fatal. They had won nine of their previous 10 and could not realistically maintain that emotional peak for another five weeks and then four weeks of finals. They needed a dip. Maybe this was it.

The Sharks probably weren't mentally ready, while the Dragons were switched on and ferocious in defence. Nicho Hynes carried the pressure of his conversion streak into one horribly hooked kick, and the afternoon unravelled from there.

Cronulla's forwards also looked tired. Coaches sometimes load players before the finals, then sharply reduce training to restore freshness, so Craig Fitzgibbon may have chosen the last-placed opponent for a physically demanding week and watched it backfire.

The bigger credit belongs to Dean Young. He refuses excuses, never reaches for the referee and has his players fighting. The squad is still being rebuilt, but its attitude already has been.

Manly's collapse now belongs to Foran

Manly's sugar hit is finished. Seven wins from eight after Kieran Foran replaced Anthony Seibold looked wonderful, but five straight losses make this a coaching problem.

Seibold had overloaded the players with theory and head noise. Foran simplified everything, restored a relaxed environment and let a talented squad play direct football, but every new-coach bounce eventually dies. Then the coach must build something of his own.

Three straight losses demand repairs. Five reveal whether the man in charge can diagnose trouble, make hard selection calls and change direction without losing the dressing room. Foran's first game came against the Dolphins before the surge began; they may now bookend the best and worst of his opening chapter. The easy energy is gone. Now we find out whether he can coach.

Bellamy has given Melbourne the year it desperately needs

Craig Bellamy coaching next season is a massive rescue job for Melbourne. At one stage it appeared he was finished, but I reckon he recognised the Storm needed him and put the club ahead of himself in some respects.

This will be a rebuild of some sort. Cooper Clarke has been a revelation, Hayden Watson has first-grader written all over him and Melbourne knew what they had coming, which helps explain why they did not retain Tyran Wishart. Watson will probably cost a fraction of what Wishart would have and deliver nearly the same player. That is ruthless roster management.

Bellamy has indicated, without confirming, that next season may be his last. A 12-month handover gives Melbourne time to find the right replacement and allows him to build the bridge rather than leave the club staring over a cliff.

Horsburgh deserved the blast — spare me the bullying rubbish

Corey Horsburgh deserved every word Ricky Stuart gave him. Canberra were 26-24 down from memory, had a late penalty within easy kicking distance and probably could have forced extra time, but Horsburgh responded to Dane Gagai's push by clipping him over the head. The penalty reversed, Newcastle escaped and Canberra's season ended.

That was not bad luck. It was the same rotten discipline Stuart had warned about all season, after Canberra repeatedly lost games they should have won.

Calling Stuart's response bullying is nonsense. He refused the easy excuse, accepted that his side had created its own mess and held an elite athlete accountable for an action that destroyed a season. That is coaching. Elite sport has consequences; it is not a carnival where everybody receives a trophy. If accountability feels too harsh, go and play park football.