PNG Chiefs are coming for Nathan Cleary & the Panthers should be terrified
Cleary is the target. Munster is the insurance
The Chiefs want Nathan Cleary. Everything else is contingency planning, including Cameron Munster being given permission by Melbourne to speak with them while he is injured.
Apparently Munster’s management approached the Chiefs months ago and was politely rebuffed because they were reserving their money for Cleary, who cannot be approached until November 1. If he has not re-signed with Penrith by then, the Chiefs will go hard. That is a massive worry because Cleary is Penrith’s heart, not merely another elite player who can be replaced through clever recruitment.
Munster remains an exceptional alternative, although I understand Willie Peters is considering whether he could transition into the seven jersey. That makes more sense than shifting an older Munster to fullback, where the running demands are savage, particularly in Papua New Guinea’s heat. He will be about 33 by the time he arrives and, while his legs may slow, his football brain can still drive a team.
Jarome Luai has not shown himself to be a genuine seven at the Tigers. The Chiefs know a rookie halfback could stall the whole operation. They need a conductor, and they are hunting the best available.
Tax-free millions will shake the competition
The Chiefs possess a financial weapon established clubs cannot match. Cleary can be offered significant tax-free money, turning an ordinary contract comparison into a massacre.
A well-managed club might soon pay its best player between $1.7 million and $2 million, but Cleary would effectively multiply that value in Papua New Guinea because he would pay no tax. Luai’s Chiefs deal is believed to be worth $1.2 million tax-free, and Cleary would command significantly more.
Two incoming clubs could pour another $30 million to $35 million into the player market. Smart managers have timed elite contracts around broadcast negotiations for years, but this is a rare jackpot: more clubs, a larger cap and a newcomer capable of stripping third-party opportunities from the rest of its roster to secure one superstar.
The Chiefs may look opportunistic, yet their targets are precise. Joey Manu and Zac Lomax became available through rugby, Connor Watson received permission to explore his options and Munster opened the door himself. That is not chaos. It is controlled aggression.
Souths must make the brutal calls
South Sydney cannot keep paying stars for the football they might play. Availability is value, and sentiment is poison when a roster is jammed against the cap.
Souths reportedly froze some re-signings, with about 20 players believed to be coming off contract, and I’m told negotiations involving players who have missed significant time through injury over the past three years were delayed until after the season. Campbell Graham and Latrell Mitchell sit inside that difficult assessment.
Latrell is worth every cent when he plays. The problem is the missing games. At some point the salary and the availability stop matching, forcing Mark Ellison, Wayne Bennett and the club to make calls supporters may hate.
Payne Haas arrives next year and Souths see themselves returning to the fight, but that requires a full squad. They must replace expensive absences with players who will actually get onto the field. Brutal? Absolutely. Necessary? Even more so.
The Bears have bought last year’s Shibasaki
Perth have gambled on Shibasaki rediscovering the fire he lost this year. They paid significantly more than Brisbane were prepared to offer, and now they must prove they bought the player from last season rather than the indifferent version currently wearing the jersey.
Shibasaki arrived at Brisbane on a train-and-trial deal, played his way into State of Origin, earned an upgrade and toured with Australia. This year the fire disappeared, he spent time in State Cup and Michael Maguire made his dissatisfaction with some performances known.
Brisbane valued him around what they probably considered his true worth. Shibasaki disagreed, negotiations stalled and the Bears entered with both money and an urgent need for quality.
I think his manager Wade Rushton did a strong job salvaging a good contract, although Shibasaki probably earned less than he could have commanded by maintaining last year’s form. Perth have paid for upside. Now Shibasaki must arrive fit, angry and carrying a point to prove.
The quiet winners are exposing the noisy failures
The Roosters, Warriors and Cronulla understand the ladder rewards wins, not headlines. They keep banking points while supposedly grander teams wait for a magical surge that may never arrive.
The Roosters sit second because they close tight games, regularly turning contests into four-point and six-point wins. Justin Holbrook deserves to be deep in the coach-of-the-year conversation for transforming Newcastle, who have won five straight at home, but the Roosters remain masters of surviving pressure without making a song and dance about it.
The Warriors operate the same way, which makes Canterbury’s assignment vicious. The Bulldogs showed last week that their ceiling remains dangerous, Crichton returns to the halves and they are fighting to stay alive, but possibility is worthless unless they reproduce it.
Canberra should beat the Tigers comfortably because their energy has returned and their middle forwards are holding firm. The Tigers, meanwhile, are drifting back towards the old disease of promises without delivery. Their capitulation against Canterbury had no excuse. If their season dies, I would move Luai on rather than waste the final six games pretending his presence still serves a purpose.
Parramatta can also trouble a Penrith side still carrying an Origin hangover, particularly with Mitchell Moses returning and Dylan Edwards out. Penrith will fire again soon, but the old western big brother-little brother rivalry is gone. The boundaries became bigger than that years ago.
The battlers finally have something to say
Dragons against Titans looked unwatchable six weeks ago. Now both sides are playing good football, and the contest should reveal whether the Dragons have rebuilt any genuine spirit under Dean Young.
The Titans won last week, while the Dragons have stayed in the fight despite several things going against them. I expect points, although the Dragons’ unresolved scoring problems give the Titans the edge. Old boys’ day should provide an emotional jolt, and Gutho’s 250th game adds another hard reason to aim up.
Manly also owe their supporters a response against Cronulla. Lehi Hopoate replaces Turbo and brings genuine talent, while the clubs carry a rivalry stretching back to the brutal 1973 grand final, when Cliff Watson stood calmly against a goalpost before planting himself in the middle of a 25-minute bloodbath.
Cronulla have been quietly winning, so the logic points their way. I still think Manly finally show something. If they cannot find it at Brookvale against an old enemy, their season deserves no sympathy.
