South Sydney are the finals danger nobody wants to face

Jai Arrow made an old rivalry feel small

The football was forgettable, but Jai Arrow gave the night its meaning. South Sydney and the Roosters have spent more than a century finding reasons to despise each other, yet their support for Arrow through his MND situation was rugby league at its absolute best.

Wayne Bennett has been central to Arrow’s career since his Brisbane debut and was waiting on the sideline when he walked off, producing an embrace that cut through all the usual tribal theatre. Nick Politis had previously paid for Arrow to attend the Soccer World Cup and partly funded a wellness retreat in Spain, while the Roosters wrapped their arms around a bloke from the other side of the fence without making it about themselves.

Apparently, the former owner of ISC also produced 800 shirts out of goodwill, with the proceeds going to Arrow and his family. I make it 100 South Sydney games for Arrow now, but this was bigger than a milestone. The rivalry resumed after 80 minutes. Humanity had the field until then.

Souths are surging while Spencer lost the plot

South Sydney won the physical argument, and Spencer lost the emotional one. Keaun Kolomatangi came after him from the opening kick-off, eventually sat him down without fuss, returned to the defensive line and did it again; Spencer responded by putting the ball down, inviting another confrontation and conceding a penalty when the depleted Roosters needed leadership.

I love Spencer off the field because he is mild-mannered, respectful and balanced, but once he crosses the white line the temperature gauge can disappear. Throwing away possession in that situation was stupid, and removing him was the right call.

The Roosters have lost three straight and their defeat to Wests Tigers was putrid, although writing them off would be equally foolish with Angus Crichton and substantial cavalry returning. Crichton is a big-game player who generally improves as the stakes rise.

Souths are in better shape. Latrell Mitchell played 80 minutes, Tallis Duncan is returning and I think Matt Dufty going back to fullback ahead of Jai Grey is a no-brainer. Newcastle are losing personnel at the wrong time, including the suspended Jacob Safiti, while the Rabbitohs are finding theirs. Their one glaring defect is goal-kicking: Latrell converted five from 10, and that weakness can end a season in one cruel night.

Bennett has timed this run to the millisecond

The greatest weapon South Sydney possess is not any individual player but the bloke arranging the pieces. Bennett knows how to prepare a side to peak in September and, more importantly, on grand final day; everything about this run suggests he has again found the precise moment to tighten the screws.

He reached 600 wins after coaching more than 1400 games, including his years in the Brisbane competition, and nobody will get near that body of work. His recent press conferences have been ordinary, clipped answers, a snarl and precious little insight, but that is performance art. Away from the cameras he is funny, light-hearted and dry, which explains why players love him and why he keeps extracting more from them than other coaches can.

Keaun Kolomatangi is leaving at season’s end and Payne Haas is arriving next year, but Bennett has kept the present tense from being swallowed by the future. Souths are balanced, healthy and battle-hardened now. They are the only side outside the top four I can see winning the competition, even if their route through the draw is the nastier one.

The Warriors have earned a genuine home road

The Warriors can win the competition because their football is no longer built on hope or isolated brilliance. Their pack creates momentum through power, they have strike across the field and every replacement entering the system understands his job; I think they have very few weaknesses.

Finals pressure remains the examination they cannot rehearse. Their spine does not carry the same proven big-game authority as Penrith’s, but Leka Halasima is a genuine weapon, Wayde Egan can influence a contest and the consistency maintained through long absences in the halves is evidence of substance rather than luck.

Their home final matters enormously because victory would also deliver a preliminary final in New Zealand. Cameron George is right that they have earned the right to play at home, although I think the sensible split is Mount Smart in week one and Eden Park for a preliminary final. Eden Park can hold more than 50,000 and would add roughly 25,000 Warriors supporters without diluting the home advantage.

Penrith remain formidable and the Roosters can still win it, but Cronulla and Newcastle are done. I think the Warriors are positioned to do something special.

The Dolphins cannot keep sleeping through kick-off

The Dolphins are dangerous enough to trouble anybody, but their starts will cost them a major final unless they stop treating the opening whistle like a snooze button. Against the Titans they were frantic rather than patient, made early errors and played as if they needed an immediate rescue instead of building pressure.

They still won 24-14 despite completing at 73 per cent and missing too many tackles, which is the encouraging part. Their coach felt they probably had one eye on the finals and were trying to avoid injury or suspension, and I would not judge their ceiling on a performance played at about 80 per cent.

I think they have the best backline in the competition. Jack Bostock is an extraordinary aerial threat, the Hammer has played plenty of big games and their wider squad contains more representative experience than first impressions suggest. Collectively, however, they have never proved they can handle finals pressure as a Dolphins unit.

That is the hard question: can talent compensate for bad beginnings? Not forever. They have already made a significant statement by beating the Roosters at Allianz Stadium, but another sleepy opening in September could make their first finals appearance brutally brief.

Luai checked out before the Tigers clock stopped

Jarome Luai was entitled to use his days off as he pleased, but failing to tell Wests Tigers that he was flying from Townsville to Papua New Guinea was poor leadership. The club thought he was staying in Townsville and did not know he was boarding a private jet to fulfil third-party arrangements. That lack of transparency might be expected from a teenager, not a seasoned representative recruited as the marquee man.

Benji Marshall has no regrets about signing Luai and credits him with lifting standards off the field, although even Marshall accepts the on-field return could have been greater. I am told their relationship fractured horrendously during the season and I do not think it will be repaired.

The Tigers also bent themselves out of shape to accommodate Luai, shifting debutant Javon Andrews from his preferred left side to the right against Canberra, yet now plan to limit Luai’s minutes in a meaningless final game against Penrith. That is muddled management.

Parramatta entered this deal with eyes wide open. Good luck to them.