The Knights have the heart, but the Roosters have too many weapons
Crossland had to miss the grand final
There are moments when sympathy and accountability have to occupy the same room. Phoenix Crossland was shattered at the judiciary, and I have no doubt the tackle was an accident. But an accident can still be an illegal act with a devastating consequence. This one broke Nathan Cleary’s leg.
So the hard question is unavoidable: should Crossland have been spared because the suspension cost him a grand final? No. The judiciary referred the hip-drop tackle because it sat at the most serious end of the scale, then imposed four matches. Once the game accepted that grading, it could not bend because the next fixture happened to be the biggest one of his life.
Crossland’s workload provides context, not a defence. He has made more than 1000 tackles this season, more than anyone else in the competition, and one went horribly wrong. That record tells us he is not a dirty player. It does not make the dangerous tackle disappear.
He has handled the aftermath with genuine remorse and now must turn his attention to helping Harrison Graham and lifting his teammates through grand final week. Newcastle naming him in the No.9 jersey was a classy acknowledgement of what he contributed to getting them there. He earned his place in the campaign. He did not earn an exemption from the consequences.
Watson’s health must outrank grand final emotion
Connor Watson should play only if the independent medical process clears him without qualification. A grand final is not a permission slip to blur an 11-day stand-down rule, particularly when the head is the one part of a footballer’s body nobody can afford to gamble with.
Watson received an on-field category-two assessment against the Dolphins before the independent NRL doctor upgraded it to category one. The Roosters will push for a review and, provided Watson has no symptoms and satisfies the concussion criteria, an independent concussion counsellor can reclassify him. That process exists for a reason and must remain untouched by the occasion.
I understand why the Roosters are trying. Watson is highly regarded, has endured a rotten injury run and would be desperate to finish with a premiership, while the club has been proactive after its experiences with Boyd Cordner, Jake Friend and Luke Keary. But sentiment is precisely what must be removed from this decision.
If Watson is unavailable, Spencer Leniu comes into the calculation, with Hugo Savala providing flexibility and Benaiah Ioelu offering specialist cover for Reece Robson. The Roosters have enough depth. They do not need to bend medicine around a team sheet.
The Roosters are simply too loaded
Newcastle can win, but they will have to produce something beyond their normal ceiling because this Roosters side is primed, fit and dripping with big-game experience.
Angus Crichton has been named on the interchange bench despite being a grand final winner and Test and Origin representative, while Leniu did not play a millisecond last week despite his own representative pedigree. That is not depth; it is extravagance with a salary cap.
James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, Robert Toia, Daly Cherry-Evans, Sam Walker, Lindsay Collins, Victor Radley and Robson bring representative experience across the park, and the middle forwards powered ahead last week as though somebody had wound back the clock. Newcastle’s courage is beyond question, but courage becomes expensive when it is spent tackling waves of fresh internationals.
Robson is the player who has not received enough credit. The Roosters struggled to replace Friend, while Brandon Smith never truly suited their style, but Robson has the size to survive through the middle and the judgement to attack when markers loosen. He has settled quickly and become their unsung hero in the game’s most demanding position.
My call is firm: Newcastle will make it a contest, but the Roosters will win.
Newcastle’s belief was built on one blade of grass
The Knights are not arriving on emotion alone; they are in the grand final because their desperate defensive moments have become a habit, and Jermaine McEwen’s intervention against Casey McLean captured the entire campaign.
His left hand beneath the ball kept Newcastle’s season alive, with little more than a blade of grass separating a grand final appearance from Mad Monday. It was the purest one-percent play: technically desperate, physically committed and made when fatigue usually strips the detail from a defender’s work. McEwen then stood up to Leota and refused to retreat, the young bull meeting the old one without asking permission.
That spirit has swallowed Newcastle. I went there and saw red-and-blue flags everywhere, while the old footage of the 1997 and 2001 celebrations has only thickened the atmosphere. The Koori Knockout is also being held at Roman Terrace, with the Newcastle Yowies the local host team, so victory on both fronts could keep the city celebrating for months.
The Roosters own the stronger roster. Newcastle own the week.
Adam Gee must let the grand final breathe
Adam Gee is the right referee because his best quality is restraint. Grand finals do not need a leading man with a whistle; they need an official confident enough to disappear until the match demands him.
Gee kept the whistle away during the opening 20 to 25 minutes on Friday night and is currently the competition’s most in-form referee. Ashley Klein handled the entire Origin series but lost ground during the New Zealand-Newcastle semi-final, while Grant Atkins dropped out after missing other finals appointments. Gee earned this job rather than inheriting it.
The Roosters have a 6-1 record under Gee this season, although that is coincidence, not conspiracy. Strong teams win more matches than they lose, and players are not walking onto the field terrified by the referee’s surname.
Chris Butler has the bunker assignment, where the danger is obvious: one microscopic replay can hijack 80 minutes. Gee’s mission is simpler. Control the ruck, punish the blatant infringements and otherwise let the football decide the premiership.
Holbrook deserves an award the rules may deny him
Justin Holbrook is the coach of the year in every meaningful sense, and any voting system unable to recognise a rise from wooden spoon to grand final is measuring the wrong season.
The award is decided at the end of the regular campaign, when Newcastle sat seventh, which leaves Ivan Cleary, Andrew Webster and Kristian Woolf firmly in contention. Yet finals are where coaching decisions are stress-tested, reputations are forged and ordinary seasons become extraordinary ones. Holbrook’s September cannot be erased merely because the ballots were already tucked away.
Nathan Cleary should win the Dally M Medal, although the count is not as straightforward as the hospital-camera arrangements might suggest. He led after 12 rounds, played another 10 games after voting went private and collected player-of-the-match honours in Origins One and Three, but precisely how Origin points are calculated remains murky. Even so, I expect him to win comfortably.
For captain of the year, Kalyn Ponga has won me over. I previously questioned whether he was completely committed, but this season he has been all in: honest publicly, outstanding on the field and transformed into Newcastle’s unambiguous leader. Cameron Murray held South Sydney together through an emotionally brutal year, but Ponga’s emergence has defined the Knights’ charge. He deserves the honour, and he could yet collect something much larger on Sunday.
